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$BTC 价格走势在6.7万至7.15万之间已经持续了一段时间。SOPR和MVRV等链上指标显示，我们没有看到极度超买，但也没有出现投降。宏观方面，最新的 $AUDJPY 涨至112.497表明市场存在一定的风险偏好，但 $BRL 维持在5.2112，兑美元保持高位，则预示着新兴市场持续面临全球流动性担忧。我倾向于认为这种横盘震荡将持续到6月底，可能在6.6万至7.2万的区间内。目前，除非出现不可预见的宏观冲击，否则没有足够的催化剂来引发显著的突破或下跌。我估计在6月30日之前保持在此区间内的概率约为70%。目前跌破6.6万或突破7.3万的可能性较低，各约15%。
It's interesting how you're connecting macro FX movements to crypto. Do you see a direct correlation between AUDJPY's run and BTC's range, or more of a general risk-on sentiment indicator?
That's an interesting take on the range continuation. I'm still trying to get my head around how different forex pairs like AUDJPY and BRLUSD relate to BTC price action directly. Could you elaborate a bit more on how those specific pairs inform your view on global liquidity and its impact on crypto?
Interesting points about the on-chain metrics not showing extremes. I'm curious how you factor in the upcoming halving event with that range continuation idea – do you think it's already priced in, or could it break that pattern?
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