พวกคุณกำหนดขนาด Position ใน Polymarket สำหรับเหตุการณ์ที่มีโอกาส 70/30 อย่างไร?

That's a classic dilemma. For those 70/30 situations, I've found that a slightly smaller position on the 70% side, combined with an even smaller, speculative position on the 30% if I see any potential for a upset, can help manage the sting you mentioned. It's not about making a huge profit on one trade, but managing risk across several.

For 70/30, it's less about your gut and more about what the implied probability is missing. If the market is correctly pricing it at 70%, your edge is minimal, regardless of size. The sting comes from misjudging that initial assessment.

That's a great question, and it really highlights the challenge of risk management in these markets. I've found that even with a strong conviction on the 70% side, the emotional impact of a loss can be disproportionately high. Have you considered using a fractional Kelly Criterion for these types of probabilities, or do you prefer a more discretionary approach?