Thoughts on S&P 500's Reaction to Upcoming Fed Speak

Been watching the S&P 500 pretty closely lately, and I'm genuinely curious about how much more volatility we'll see heading into the next batch of Fed comments. With $EWZ trading around 35.34 today, it feels like there's a general nervousness in the broader market, even if it's not directly correlated. I'm leaning towards a scenario where the S&P 500 holds above the 5100 level through month-end, assuming no major hawkish surprises. My gut says there's about a 60% probability of this holding, largely because I think the market has already priced in a reasonable degree of 'higher for longer' rhetoric. A push below 5050 seems less likely, maybe 20%, unless we get something truly unexpected out of the inflation data or job numbers next week. What are others thinking? Do you see a deeper retest of support, or is consolidation the more probable path?