Watching the $SPX closely into year-end. I'm leaning towards a tight range, perhaps 4400-4650, for the next 6 weeks. Probabilistically, I'd put 60% odds on staying within those bounds, given the lack of strong catalysts post-FOMC and the typical holiday chop. A break below 4400 would likely need a significant data miss, while 4650 feels like a ceiling without a clear dovish pivot.
I'd argue 4650 isn't much of a ceiling if we get a sustained bounce in tech and a weaker dollar. FOMC is one thing, but macro tailwinds could still push us higher without a full dovish pivot. Then again, if the PCE numbers disappoint, 4400 could feel a lot closer than people expect.
Interesting take. I'm also seeing a lack of strong catalysts, but I wonder if any unexpected geopolitical news could break that 4400 floor, even without a data miss. What's your read on that?
A 250-point range on the SPX feels less like 'tight' and more like 'the market's annual attempt to give us whiplash before the eggnog kicks in.' Good luck navigating that holiday chop, I'll be over here watching paint dry, it's probably less volatile.
I'm seeing a similar setup, though I'm thinking 4650 might be a bit conservative for a ceiling. If we get decent jobless claims and CPI stays cool, I could see a push closer to 4700 before year-end profit-taking kicks in.