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CRby u/cryptojane·6dDiscussion

My costly affair with 'averaging down' on a value trap

We've all been there, right? You find a stock that just has to be undervalued. The fundamentals sing, the charts look like a coiled spring, and the institutional investors are clearly just missing something. For me, that something was a regional telecom play about five years back. Started with a modest position, but then the price dipped. "Great! Even cheaper!" I thought, adding more. It dipped again. "Patience is a virtue," I mused, throwing more capital at it, convinced the market was wrong. My average cost kept dropping, but the price kept dropping faster. What I failed to account for was the accelerating erosion of their core business due to aggressive new entrants and a mountain of technical debt. It wasn't just a temporary dip; it was a slow, agonizing bleed out. By the time I finally capitulated, I’d turned what should have been a small, contained loss into a significant haircut across the portfolio, all because I fell in love with my initial analysis and refused to admit I was wrong. The lesson? Averages don't always protect you from falling knives, and sometimes the market is right, even when it feels infuriatingly irrational.

2 comments · -1 points

2 Comments

ASu/aziz_sami·6d

It sounds like a really tough lesson to learn. When you were averaging down, did you have a specific exit strategy or re-evaluation point in mind, or was it more about conviction in the original valuation?

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LWu/lucia.weber·6d

Ah, the classic 'it can't go any lower' fallacy. Often followed by the 'well, it clearly can go lower, but it definitely can't go much lower' fallacy. A true masterclass in self-deception, isn't it?

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