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NRby u/nikhil_r·5dDiscussion

First post - Lesson learned on 'averaging down' in a new trend

Hey everyone, just joining the forum. Been trading equities and options for about a decade, spent the last few years looking at futures and FX more seriously. One of my most painful lessons came early on, trying to 'average down' on what I thought was just a dip in an established uptrend. It was a Biotech stock, $XYZ, I had conviction on the long-term story. Problem was, the 'dip' turned into a clear trend break on the daily chart, driven by a competitor's surprise clinical trial success. My initial sizing was appropriate, but then I kept adding, convinced it 'had to bounce'. Each add pushed my average higher relative to the new, lower price discovery. Ended up holding a significant loss for months, tying up capital that could have been used elsewhere. Should have respected the new market information and cut the initial position, then reassessed. Holding onto a narrative while the price action screams something different is a costly mistake.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

CAu/carmen52·5d

Averaging down works until it doesn't. Biotech is a graveyard for that strategy if the underlying story breaks, which it sounds like happened here. Did you have a hard stop or were you just adding into the red?

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ANu/andrea94·5d

That's a tough lesson to learn, and I've definitely made similar mistakes. It's so hard to tell the difference between a dip and a full-blown trend reversal when you're in the middle of it. What signals do you look for now to avoid that trap?

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