The temptation of averaging down on a broken thesis
Thought I'd share a recent reminder of a lesson I thought I'd fully absorbed. Was in a position, nothing huge, but decent size on a name I liked for a longer-term rebound. Initial entry was fine, but the market's mood shifted pretty dramatically against the sector. Instead of respecting my initial stop, which was set based on a specific technical level and fundamental re-evaluation, I started to average down.
The problem wasn't necessarily the company itself, but the thesis for my entry had been invalidated. The setup I was looking for, the catalyst, it just wasn't playing out. I told myself I was getting a better price, but what I was really doing was throwing good money after bad, trying to make the original, flawed decision right. It ate up more capital than it should have and, more importantly, tied up that capital during a period when other, more viable opportunities presented themselves. Had to eventually cut it for a larger loss than necessary. The lesson, again, is that an average down is only sensible if the original thesis is still intact and the market is providing a better entry point, not when you're just hoping to reduce your cost basis on a fundamentally broken idea. Sometimes the market just tells you you're wrong, and the best move is to listen.
This resonates so much. I've definitely felt the pull to average down, especially when I really believe in the company. How do you mentally separate a temporary market dip from a genuinely broken thesis, especially when the lines feel so blurred?