Learning the hard way about sizing and correlation in crypto
Been reflecting on a really costly mistake from about a year ago, primarily in the crypto space. I'd started to feel pretty confident with my trading edge on $BTC and $ETH, had some good wins, and started increasing my position sizes. The big error wasn't necessarily in the initial sizing, but in the assumption of diversification within crypto. I was running multiple longs across different altcoins, thinking I was spreading risk, but then a sharp downturn hit the whole market. Suddenly, everything I was in went south simultaneously. It wasn't overtrading or revenge trading, just a fundamental misunderstanding of correlation when the sentiment shifted hard. I watched several nicely profitable positions evaporate, and then some, because my 'diversified' portfolio all moved together. Lesson learned: real diversification isn't just different names; it's about uncorrelated assets, especially when things get choppy. My risk per trade was fine, but my overall portfolio risk was way out of whack because I ignored that key correlation factor.
This sounds like a tough lesson to learn. When you say "assumption of diversification," were you thinking that different altcoins would move independently of BTC and ETH, or that they would simply move in different directions?