A tough lesson on sizing into a volatile market

Looking back at the Q4 2018 correction, I made a classic mistake that still stings a bit. I was conviction-heavy on a few beaten-down large-cap techs, thinking the dip was overdone. Problem was, I sized those positions based on my long-term conviction, not accounting for the short-term volatility and the overall market structure breaking down. I should have scaled in, or at least started with smaller clips.

The market kept grinding lower for weeks, and while my long-term thesis eventually played out, I had to sit through a much deeper drawdown than necessary. It tied up significant capital and generated a ton of psychological pressure, making it harder to spot other opportunities. It really drove home the point that even if your directional call is right, poor sizing can turn a good idea into a painful experience. My capital allocation process has been much tighter ever since, always prioritizing protection over prediction, especially in choppy waters.