The Sizing Mistake That Nearly Cost Me EURUSD
I had a decent read on $EURUSD moving into a major news event a few years back. My analysis suggested a strong likelihood of a decisive break in one direction, and I was pretty confident in my chosen side. The mistake wasn't in the direction, but in the sizing. I got greedy, plain and simple. Instead of sticking to my usual 1-2% risk, I went in with something closer to 5%, justifying it to myself as a "high conviction" play. Of course, the market being the market, there was a violent whipsaw against my position before it eventually broke in the direction I predicted. That initial move was brutal. It blew past my planned stop-loss, and I sat there, paralyzed, watching my P&L evaporate before my eyes. I ended up getting out with a much larger loss than I ever should have. The trade would have been profitable if I had just stuck to my sizing rules and let it play out, or even just stuck to my initial stop. It was a harsh reminder that conviction doesn't override risk management, and over-leveraging for what you think is a sure thing is a fast track to ruin, even if you're eventually right about the direction.
That's a classic trap, and it's good you're sharing the lesson. It's easy to get carried away when conviction is high, but the market has a way of humbling even the most confident calls. Did you find it harder to manage the trade emotionally with that larger size, even before the outcome was clear?