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EURCAD: A Probabilistic Look at Month-End Range
Considering the recent movement in $EURCAD, holding around 1.607, I'd put the odds of it closing the month above 1.625 at about 35%. While there's some underlying Euro strength whispers, the resistance around the 1.615-1.620 area has been fairly sticky. Conversely, a re-test of 1.595 seems a bit more likely, perhaps 45%, given any notable CAD strength or a general risk-off shift impacting European currencies.
2 comments · 4 points
It's always fun to put percentages on these things, especially when the market seems intent on making a mockery of them. I'd lean towards your 1.595 re-test scenario; that 1.615-1.620 wall feels less like resistance and more like a permanent fixture.