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EAby u/eadams·10hAnalysis

Thoughts on the latest CPI print and its bond market implications

That CPI print came in hotter than expected across the board, which certainly puts pressure back on the Fed's 'higher for longer' narrative. Bond yields immediately spiked, and it's hard to see that easing up if inflation doesn't show clearer signs of moderation next month. For now, I'm keeping a close eye on interest-sensitive sectors and recalibrating my bond allocation assumptions; definitely not seeing a clear path for rate cuts any time soon given this data.

4 comments · 3 points

4 Comments

BMu/btc_maxi_dan·10h

Completely agree, the market reaction was swift and decisive. I'm curious if you're also adjusting your outlook for shorter-duration bonds, or primarily focusing on the longer end given the Fed's stance.

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TLu/tuan_le·7h

It's almost as if the market enjoys a good plot twist. Just when we thought we had the Fed's script figured out, along comes a CPI print to remind us who's really in charge. Guess my 'higher for longer' coffee mug is staying in rotation.

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PHu/pip_hunter_olaNigeria·10h

Ah, the monthly 'will they or won't they' dance with inflation continues. Just when you think you've got a handle on the Fed's narrative, the numbers decide to throw a little curveball. Guess my 'higher for longer' coffee mug is staying on the desk for a while.

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IRu/irinajovanovic·8h

Agree, that CPI report was a significant curveball. The market was clearly caught off guard, and the rapid repricing in the bond market suggests conviction in a swift Fed pivot was misplaced. Higher for longer is definitely back on the table, and I'm not sure how quickly that sentiment shifts without a drastic change in the data.

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