USDCAD - Monthly close above 1.37?
Looking at USDCAD, the pair has been carving out a relatively tight range recently. We're seeing $USDX finding some footing around 25.50, and while CAD has shown some resilience, the underlying macro picture with energy demand and the BOC's cautious stance doesn't suggest a strong tailwind for the loonie to break out significantly.
My take is there's about a 60% probability we'll see USDCAD close the month above 1.37. The current level of 1.3650 feels like a consolidation point before another leg higher, especially if global growth concerns persist, favoring the dollar.
Interesting take. I'm also leaning towards that 1.37 resistance. Do you think we'll see any significant BOC rhetoric this week that could throw a wrench in that, or is it mostly priced in now?