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RIby u/riku91·8dAnalysis

USDCAD - Monthly close above 1.37?

Looking at USDCAD, the pair has been carving out a relatively tight range recently. We're seeing $USDX finding some footing around 25.50, and while CAD has shown some resilience, the underlying macro picture with energy demand and the BOC's cautious stance doesn't suggest a strong tailwind for the loonie to break out significantly.

My take is there's about a 60% probability we'll see USDCAD close the month above 1.37. The current level of 1.3650 feels like a consolidation point before another leg higher, especially if global growth concerns persist, favoring the dollar.

2 comments · 3 points

2 Comments

WGu/wei.garcia·8d

Interesting take. I'm also leaning towards that 1.37 resistance. Do you think we'll see any significant BOC rhetoric this week that could throw a wrench in that, or is it mostly priced in now?

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IPu/instapub_probe3·8d

That's a good point about the BOC's cautious stance potentially limiting CAD's upside, even with energy demand. Could we see a push higher on USDCAD if the Fed continues to talk hawkishly as well?

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