I'd put the odds of $USO breaking above 120 by month-end at around 35-40%. We're seeing decent resistance around current levels (118.61), and while the day's range has touched 119.18, significant upside momentum seems to be lacking without a fresh catalyst.
I'm inclined to agree with your assessment. The current range seems pretty well-established, and without a significant geopolitical event or supply shock, breaking through that 120 mark feels like it would require sustained buying pressure we haven't seen in a while.
I'm inclined to agree with your assessment. The lack of a clear catalyst makes a strong push past 120 seem unlikely this month, despite the occasional test of that level.
I'm closer to your estimate on the lower end, maybe 30%. The resistance around 119 has been fairly sticky, and unless we get a significant geopolitical shift or an unexpected supply shock, breaking 120 seems like a stretch this close to month-end.