Odds on $UGAZ breaking 11.50 by Friday's close

Looking at the current price action for $UGAZ, hovering around 10.82 after a day that saw it touch 11.25, I'd put the odds of it closing above 11.50 by Friday at about 35%. While there's certainly some upward momentum and general bullish sentiment in the short term, the resistance around 11.25-11.30 has been fairly consistent, and clearing that convincingly to push towards 11.50 would require a significant sustained push, which seems slightly less probable than a continued chop or modest retrace into the weekend, given current volumes.