$KWEB vs. regulatory overhang by end of Q2

Looking at $KWEB at 26.29 today, the immediate bounce off the lows seems a bit fragile. My take is there's a 60% probability we see $KWEB trade below 25 by the end of Q2. The regulatory environment in China, while perhaps not actively tightening further, isn't showing clear signs of sustained easing either. We're still seeing various sector-specific pronouncements that create uncertainty. The current price action feels more like a relief rally in a broader downtrend for that segment, rather than a fundamental shift. Earnings season will also bring renewed focus on specific company performances within the ETF, and any disappointments could quickly cascade.