Predicting KWEB's range by month-end

Looking at $KWEB, currently at 27.98, with the day's range already touching 27.63 on the low end. Given the recent chop and the broader sentiment around Chinese tech, I'm putting the probability of $KWEB staying within a 27.00-29.00 range by month-end at about 65%. There's still significant policy overhang, but the downside seems somewhat contained near that 27 handle unless there's a major catalyst. Upside also capped, with 29 acting as a bit of a psychological resistance point that hasn't been breached convincingly for a sustained period. Anything outside that feels like a lower probability tail event, maybe 20% for a break above 29.00 and 15% for a dip below 27.00.