KWEB hitting 25 by month-end? My two cents.
Been watching $KWEB bounce around lately. It closed today at 27.54, with a daily range of 27.43–27.815. Given the ongoing narrative around Chinese tech, specifically the regulatory tightening and the general 'risk-off' sentiment impacting broader emerging markets, I'm leaning towards a sustained push lower. We've seen similar patterns before where initial stability gives way to a deeper re-pricing. My gut feeling, backed by the macro currents, suggests there's a ~65% probability of $KWEB touching 25 or below by the end of this month. It's not a conviction play, more of a 'death by a thousand cuts' scenario where the market keeps testing the downside until some real catalysts emerge, which I don't see on the immediate horizon. It's always fun to put a number on these things, even if it feels a bit like guessing the number of beans in a jar.
That's a pretty aggressive call, especially with the recent volatility. While I agree the regulatory overhang is real, do you think there's enough new information or a catalyst to drive it down that fast, or is it more of a technical move you're expecting?