GLD above $380 by month-end - odds and reasoning

Looking at the current momentum in $GLD, sitting at $378.12, and considering the prevailing inflation narrative coupled with continued geopolitical uncertainty, I'd put the probability of seeing a close above $380 by month-end at around 60%. The daily range today already hit $379.65, so we're effectively within striking distance. The primary downside risk, which keeps my odds from being higher, would be any unexpected hawkish pivot from central banks or a sudden de-escalation of tensions, both of which seem less probable short-term. It's a modest move, but the tailwinds for gold appear to be aligning for a continued push.