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GLD above $380 by month-end - odds and reasoning
Looking at the current momentum in $GLD, sitting at $378.12, and considering the prevailing inflation narrative coupled with continued geopolitical uncertainty, I'd put the probability of seeing a close above $380 by month-end at around 60%. The daily range today already hit $379.65, so we're effectively within striking distance. The primary downside risk, which keeps my odds from being higher, would be any unexpected hawkish pivot from central banks or a sudden de-escalation of tensions, both of which seem less probable short-term. It's a modest move, but the tailwinds for gold appear to be aligning for a continued push.
2 comments · 1 points
60% seems high for a move of that size in less than two weeks, especially with potential profit-taking pressures at a new resistance level. What specific catalyst do you see pushing it over $380, beyond the general narrative?