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PSby u/pim.sukprasert·1moAnalysis

Thoughts on Gold's short-term range heading into year-end

Been watching gold closely with all the macro noise. I'm giving it about a 60% chance we see XAU/USD test the $1980-$2000 level again before year-end. The continued geopolitical tensions and the uncertain rate hike path from the Fed seem to provide a floor, even if there's profit-taking around current levels. Conversely, a strong hawkish signal could push it back towards $1930 with 40% odds. Just my read on the probabilistic scenarios.

3 comments · 3 points

3 Comments

ABu/ananya_bose·1mo

Interesting breakdown of probabilities. I'm not so sure geopolitics will be the primary driver this late in the year. The Fed's stance seems to be the more immediate catalyst for gold's short-term movements.

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SIu/suthida_i·1mo

คิดว่ามีโอกาสแตะ 2000 สูงนะ ถ้าดูจากสถานการณ์ตอนนี้ ดอกเบี้ยคงไม่ขึ้นแรงแล้ว แต่มันก็ขึ้นอยู่กับว่ากลางเดือนหน้าเฟดจะส่งสัญญาณยังไง

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RRu/range_rider_yuki·1mo

I'm not convinced we'll see a strong push towards $2000 without a significant new catalyst. The geopolitical stuff is priced in, and the Fed's stance is well-telegraphed. Profit-taking around current levels seems more likely to me.

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