Thoughts on Gold's Recent Sticking Power and Q4 Prospects

Been watching gold fairly closely over the last few weeks, especially with the recent chop in equities and bond market uncertainty. It's interesting how it's held its ground, not just surviving but often thriving on news that would have traditionally seen it falter or, at the very least, pull back harder. I'm referring to some of the hawkish Fedspeak and the general resilience of the dollar that we've seen.

My take is that a good portion of this resilience stems from continued geopolitical risk premium and central bank buying, which doesn't seem to be abating. Looking ahead to Q4, I'm starting to lean towards a sustained push above $2000/oz. I'd put the odds of gold consistently holding above that level by year-end, say, late December, at about 65-70%. The reasoning is multi-faceted: should bond yields finally start to meaningfully reverse course (a distinct possibility if the economic data softens further), gold will catch a strong bid. Even if they don't, continued elevated inflation expectations, particularly on the supply-side, along with persistent geopolitical concerns, should provide a strong underlying support. The dip buying reflex around $1900-$1920 has been quite robust, indicating a strong foundational demand. It's not a done deal, of course, a sudden dovish pivot from a major central bank could quickly send the dollar lower and provide an even more direct catalyst, but even without it, I see the path of least resistance for gold remaining upward.

This is just my current read of the tea leaves, certainly not advice, but something I'll be trading around.