Odds on $AUDJPY hitting 113.00 by Friday close
Looking at the current $AUDJPY move, it's pushed hard today, currently at 112.508. We've seen a clear run, and the day's high is 112.63. The momentum is there, but it's also starting to look a bit stretched for a single day's push without a significant fresh catalyst. I'd put the odds of it hitting 113.00 by Friday's close at around 40%. The recent high near 112.63 is a decent resistance point that was tested and rejected. While it could grind higher, the last leg of a move often faces profit-taking. A slight pullback before a retest of those highs, or even a consolidation, seems more likely than a straight shot to 113.00 from here without a major news driver. If it gets above 112.70 with conviction, then those odds obviously shift, but for now, I'm leaning slightly against it.
I'd agree that 113.00 by Friday seems a stretch. While the momentum has been strong, significant resistance often emerges around psychological levels like that, especially on a shorter timeframe. Have you considered the potential impact of any upcoming economic data releases from either Australia or Japan later in the week?