Odds on $AUDJPY hitting 113.00 by Friday close
Looking at the current $AUDJPY move, it's pushed hard today, currently at 112.508. We've seen a clear run, and the day's high is 112.63. The momentum is there, but it's also starting to look a bit stretched for a single day's push without a significant fresh catalyst. I'd put the odds of it hitting 113.00 by Friday's close at around 40%. The recent high near 112.63 is a decent resistance point that was tested and rejected. While it could grind higher, the last leg of a move often faces profit-taking. A slight pullback before a retest of those highs, or even a consolidation, seems more likely than a straight shot to 113.00 from here without a major news driver. If it gets above 112.70 with conviction, then those odds obviously shift, but for now, I'm leaning slightly against it.
Given it's already kissed 112.63, that last 37 pips might as well be on the moon without some serious fundamental rocket fuel. I'd say 40% is optimistic; my crystal ball is showing a strong urge for a retracement after such a sprint.