AUDJPY breaking 112 by month-end, my thoughts

Hey folks, been watching $AUDJPY pretty closely lately. It's been range-bound for a bit, currently sitting around 111.55. My gut feeling, backed by a bit of technical analysis on the daily charts and keeping an eye on the rate differential narrative between the RBA and BoJ, is that we're going to see a push above 112 before month-end.

I'd put the probability of that happening at around 65%. The carry trade is still pretty attractive, and while there's always noise, the underlying current seems to be pushing it higher. We've seen a few attempts to break out of the 111-112 range recently, hitting a day high of 111.742, and I reckon the next big catalyst could give it the momentum it needs. Of course, any unexpected dovish turn from the RBA or hawkish rhetoric from the BoJ could shift things, but for now, I'm leaning towards the upside. Just a thought, not a trade recommendation, as always.