AUDJPY breaking 112 by end of month - My odds.

Considering the recent price action in $AUDJPY, currently at 111.377, the momentum has been a bit choppy but generally upward-biased on daily charts. We've seen resistance around the 111.60-111.70 region multiple times this week. While the prevailing risk-on sentiment globally could provide some tailwinds, the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy meeting in July presents a potential wildcard for JPY crosses. I'm putting the odds of $AUDJPY breaching and holding above 112 by month-end at roughly 40%. The primary resistance level needs a clear break and retest, and without a significant catalyst, I think it might be tough. The potential for profit-taking ahead of major central bank decisions could cap upside for a bit. There's also the current $AUDNZD at 1.22136, which suggests some underlying AUD strength, but not enough to overpower potential JPY volatility.