Predicting NATGAS range by month-end, given current setup

Looking at $NATGAS, current price action at 2.79 after that dip to 2.775 earlier today, it feels like it's trying to find a floor. We've seen decent support around the 2.70-2.75 area historically. Given the slight cooling in demand forecasts and decent storage levels, I'd put the probability of $NATGAS staying within the 2.65 to 2.95 range by month-end at around 65%. A push above 2.95 would likely require a significant weather event or unexpected supply disruption, which isn't currently priced in. Conversely, a sustained break below 2.65 would suggest a fundamental shift in demand, also not visible right now. It's more likely to chop around here, consolidating, rather than making a big directional move in either direction without a new catalyst.