Forecasting HKD movement by month-end, given recent uptick

Been watching $HKD pretty closely lately, especially with the recent +1.85% move today, pushing it up to 1.65. The daily range from 1.6 to 1.66 tells a story of some underlying volatility, or at least a readiness to react. I'm curious about where this takes us by month-end.

My take is that there's a 60% chance we see $HKD trading above 1.67 by the end of the month. The reasoning isn't purely technical, though the current momentum is a factor. I'm leaning more on macro shifts and potential capital flows into the region that could further strengthen it. If we see any significant positive news out of China or broader emerging markets, HKD could catch a tailwind. On the flip side, I'd put the odds of it falling back below 1.64 at about 25%. This would likely require some unexpected regional economic headwind or a general risk-off sentiment hitting Asian currencies. The remaining 15% is for it to largely consolidate in the current 1.64-1.67 range. What are others seeing? Are there any specific catalysts on your radar that might push it one way or another?