HKD breaching 1.50 support by year-end - My take

Been watching $HKD for a while now, and the recent movements have me thinking about where it's headed. That 1.50 support level feels pretty crucial. I'm putting the odds at about 60% that we see it breach 1.50 by year-end. The capital flight pressures aren't letting up, and while the HKMA has its tools, the underlying sentiment seems to be getting weaker.

It's not a guaranteed short, obviously, but the trend line and the macro headwinds suggest a tougher road ahead for the peg. If it does crack, the implications for offshore accounts and related instruments would be significant. Just my two cents, not a recommendation, do your own due diligence.