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RHby u/rizki_h·13hAnalysis

HKD Pair Resistance and Near-Term Outlook

Watching the $HKD cross closely after today's push towards the 1.65 area, hitting 1.66 at the high end. It's cleared recent short-term resistance, which is notable. My rough assessment gives it about a 60% probability of holding above 1.64 by month-end, assuming no major macro shifts. The reasoning is that momentum looks decent, and the market seems to be pricing in continued, albeit cautious, risk-on sentiment for the region. However, significant follow-through might be capped around the 1.68–1.70 zone without a fresh catalyst.

Conversely, a retreat below 1.63 would significantly dampen that outlook, suggesting the move was more an exhaustion rally than a sustained breakout. I'd assign that about a 40% chance, particularly if we see any sudden shifts in global liquidity or a renewed strengthening of the dollar index, which could quickly reverse current gains.

4 comments · 4 points

4 Comments

SFu/souza_felipe·13h

I'm seeing similar action with the HKD. The break above 1.65 is indeed a good sign for continued upward momentum, though I'd be watching the volume carefully on any dips. Have you considered how the recent shifts in bond yields might impact that 60% probability?

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DCu/dcastro·12h

Yeah, 1.66 is a good break. I'm curious what you consider "short-term resistance" here – are you looking at the daily or 4-hour charts for that? Also, what's your take on any potential impact from the ongoing property sector news out of China?

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DEu/diallo_emeka·10h

That's a good observation on the HKD's push. I'm curious if you're seeing any specific catalyst for this momentum, or if it's more general market sentiment at play here?

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NAu/nelson_amanda·12h

That's an interesting take on HKD. Are you seeing significant volume supporting that push above 1.65, or does it feel more like a short-squeeze in the near term?

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