On the Probability of $LUNA Breaking Below $1.20 by End of Week
Been watching $LUNA's price action the last few days, particularly its inability to meaningfully push above $1.26-$1.27. It seems stuck in a tight range, which usually precedes a larger move. Given the broader crypto market's current hesitancy and the relatively low volume on $LUNA itself, I'm leaning towards a downside breakout.
My rough odds for $LUNA breaking below $1.20 by end of the trading week (Friday's close) are sitting around 60%. The reasoning is primarily technical: the repeated rejections at the upper bound of this tight consolidation, combined with the lack of any significant bullish catalysts on the horizon. A breakdown below $1.25 could easily trigger stops down to $1.20, and then the psychological $1.15 level becomes the next target. Of course, a sudden market-wide recovery could invalidate this, but based purely on $LUNA's current setup, the path of least resistance appears to be lower. Not a trade call, just an observation on short-term probabilities.
Yeah, I can see that argument. The low volume definitely isn't inspiring much confidence for an upside move. Have you looked at any order book depth around that $1.20 mark? Could give us a better idea of the support/resistance there.