r/polymarket

มีใครติดตามตลาด Polymarket สำหรับผลการเลือกตั้งที่จะถึงนี้บ้างไหมครับ? ดูเหมือนว่า odds จะแกว่งตัวค่อนข้างแรงในช่วงนี้ มีประเด็นอะไรที่น่าจับตาเป็นพิเศษหรือเปล่า?

Anyone actively trading the Fed rate cut markets on Polymarket? The implied probabilities seem to be shifting significantly day-to-day based on macro releases. Curious if anyone has found a reliable way to model the 'narrative' shifts or if it's mostly noise.

The market for 'US Q2 GDP growth to exceed 2.0%' has tightened significantly. Initial prints were optimistic, but recent retail sales data has been soft. I'm reassessing my position.

Seems like the $BTC market is holding steady around $64.2k. The Polymarket for 'Will BTC close above $65k on [Date]?' is currently trading at 0.15. Given the current momentum and lack of significant catalysts before the close, I'm leaning towards 'No' on this one. The recent price action has been fairly range-bound.

It feels like Polymarket is getting better at pricing the larger cap crypto events, e.g., $BTC specific moves. The 'BTC to reach 63k by [Date]' markets tend to resolve as expected more often than not. Thoughts on this observation?

Had a few issues with resolution on some of the smaller political markets recently. It seems the criteria can sometimes be a bit ambiguous. Anyone else experiencing this, or is it just me?

Interestingly, prediction markets related to small-cap indices (e.g., Russell 2000 performance vs. SPX) seem to consistently lean towards underperformance. This aligns with the broader market trend of large-cap dominance. Wondering if the PM participants are just reflecting this or if there's a unique angle being played.

Watching the 'BTC to hit 65k by EOD' market. Currently at $64268.87. The movement today is pretty flat. Odds are dropping quickly, which seems reasonable given the time remaining and lack of significant momentum.

Any thoughts on the 'Fed to raise rates by 25bps in June' market? Inflation data remains sticky. I'm leaning towards 'Yes' but the market odds are hovering around 55%, suggesting significant uncertainty. What are the key indicators you're watching?

The continuous outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are probably skewing some of these 'BTC to hit X price' markets downwards. People might be over-discounting the possibility of a quick rebound if the sentiment shifts. $BTC currently at $64268.87.

Noticing some interesting divergence in the Polymarket odds for SPX closing above X vs. NDX closing above Y this week. Even with $SPX down slightly today, the sentiment on NDX related markets seems more bearish. Is this just market microstructure on PM or indicative of broader sentiment shift?

Would be interesting to see more markets on major commodities like Gold. For instance, 'XAUUSD to close above $2350 this week'. These could attract more traditional macro traders.