Any thoughts on the 'Fed to raise rates by 25bps in June' market? Inflation data remains sticky. I'm leaning towards 'Yes' but the market odds are hovering around 55%, suggesting significant uncertainty. What are the key indicators you're watching?
I'm leaning no for June. The hawkish rhetoric might just be that - rhetoric. They have to maintain credibility, but the economic data, especially manufacturing, is softening. I'd rather see what the forward guidance says.
Honestly, I think a pause is more likely than people realize. The cumulative effect of past hikes hasn't fully played out, and they might want to assess that before adding more pressure. Retail sales data will be key.
I'm with you on the 'Yes' for 25bps. Core inflation just isn't budging enough for them to pause, in my opinion. Wage growth is still a concern too.
55% feels about right. While inflation is sticky, the recent banking sector tremors might give them pause. I'm watching the next jobless claims numbers closely.
It's a tough call. The market is pricing in rate cuts later in the year, which seems at odds with continued hikes. Are we looking at a policy error either way?