It's interesting to see Polymarket's odds on Fed rate cuts. Feels like the market is pricing in a lot of certainty for something that's still quite a moving target. Considering $USDCAD is at 1.4095 today, even small shifts in sentiment can have ripple effects.
I agree, the market often gets ahead of itself on these types of predictions. While Polymarket can be a useful sentiment gauge, the actual economic data will ultimately dictate the Fed's moves. The $USDCAD link is a good point, highlighting how interconnected these markets truly are.
I agree that Polymarket tends to price in a lot of certainty, which can be misleading. The USDCAD point is well taken; those currency pairs are often the first to reflect changes in rate expectations, even before the Fed makes an official move.
Totally agree. Polymarket is great for a pulse check, but it's easy to forget how much can change in a few weeks, let alone months. That USDCAD move definitely highlights the sensitivity.