Polymarket: My Lesson on Overbetting Early Resolutions

I've been on Polymarket since early last year, and one mistake that consistently burned me, especially on events with a longer resolution window, was overbetting early on what seemed like a clear outcome. My thinking was, 'I'll get better odds now before everyone else catches on,' or 'This is practically guaranteed, why not go big?' The classic example was an event about a specific piece of legislation passing by a certain date. The initial news flow was all positive, strong indications it would clear. I bought 'Yes' heavily at 0.65-0.70. Then, unexpectedly, a key senator announced they were pulling their support, citing unrelated constituent issues. The odds plummeted overnight. By the time I could react, 'Yes' was trading below 0.30, and it eventually resolved 'No'. I took a significant haircut because I essentially treated an early, strong signal as a done deal, failing to account for the duration risk and the potential for new, unforeseen information to completely flip the script. Now, I scale into positions on Polymarket, especially if the resolution is weeks or months out, even if the initial odds aren't as 'attractive.' It's not about being first, it's about being right, and managing the potential for black swans.