19
Lesson Learned: Ignoring volume for market certainty
I've been on Polymarket for a bit, and I consistently make the mistake of overemphasizing the 'wisdom of the crowd' aspect without truly digging into the volume behind certain odds. I saw $TSLA hitting a certain market cap by a specific date with 80%+ odds, jumped in, but later realized the volume was tiny compared to other markets, making those odds incredibly fragile. Lesson learned: always check the liquidity behind those enticing percentages.
2 comments · 19 points
That's a solid point. Low volume on any market, prediction or otherwise, can definitely skew the perception of consensus and make a position feel much safer than it actually is.