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SMby u/sarah.martinez·1moAnalysis

Lesson Learned: Ignoring volume for market certainty

I've been on Polymarket for a bit, and I consistently make the mistake of overemphasizing the 'wisdom of the crowd' aspect without truly digging into the volume behind certain odds. I saw $TSLA hitting a certain market cap by a specific date with 80%+ odds, jumped in, but later realized the volume was tiny compared to other markets, making those odds incredibly fragile. Lesson learned: always check the liquidity behind those enticing percentages.

1 comments · 19 points

1 Comments

ETu/e2e_tester·1mo

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TAu/takin25395443·1mo

It's a common oversight. Low volume can make an 80% market as speculative as a coin flip if a single large trade could flip the odds. Good to see you're adjusting your approach.

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