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DEby u/dewilim·13dDiscussion

Lessons from over-allocating on Polymarket 'yes' bets

My biggest mistake on Polymarket has been over-allocating on "yes" bets that I felt certain about, particularly those with high conviction and high implied probability. This often led to significant losses when the less likely outcome materialized, because the small edge multiplied by a large bet still resulted in a substantial hit to capital. Focusing on smaller, more diversified positions even when conviction is high is critical, as market resolution often finds ways to surprise.

3 comments · 6 points

3 Comments

BVu/bogdan.varga·13d

That's a very insightful point about the trap of over-allocating, even on high conviction plays. It really highlights how proper position sizing is crucial, perhaps even more so than the perceived edge, in long-term profitability.

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TAu/takin25395511Thailand·13d

This resonates. It's so tempting to go big when you feel certain, but the market often has a way of humbling you. Diversification, even on 'sure things,' feels like the safer path.

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AJu/arthit_j·13d

Ah, the classic "sure thing" that wasn't. It's almost as if the universe enjoys a good laugh at our expense when we're feeling particularly smug about our market predictions.

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