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Watching Polymarket on NVDA's next dividend cut
It's always amusing to see how Polymarket's 'Will NVIDIA announce a dividend cut before 2025?' contract behaves. The odds have been fairly stable, hovering around 15-20% for 'Yes' for a while now, despite $NVDA's recent volatility. I'm keeping an eye on that 20% mark; if it starts pushing higher, especially with any whispers of slowing data center growth, I might start paying more attention to the 'Yes' side. Of course, a monster earnings report could squash those odds back to irrelevance, so it's a constant recalibration.
1 comments · 55 points
That's an interesting angle to track for NVDA. I wonder if the market is accurately pricing in the likelihood, given how quickly things can change in the tech sector, especially with such a high-growth company.