NVDA pull-back post-split - a probabilistic view
Alright, so everyone's still buzzing about NVDA and its split. Frankly, I'm more interested in the aftermath than the event itself. I'm looking at a decent probability, maybe 60-65%, that we see NVDA test the $110-$115 range before the end of July.
The reasoning is fairly straightforward: post-split enthusiasm often cools off, especially after a run like NVDA has had. We've seen this movie before. The market tends to digest these things. People who bought into the split hype might take some profits, and new money might wait for a clearer entry point. It's not a slight against the company's fundamentals; those remain strong. It's more about the mechanics of market psychology and volume shifting. The current momentum feels a bit stretched, even with all the AI tailwinds. It's a healthy correction if it happens, not a sign of weakness. I'm not saying it's going to crash, just a reversion to a more sensible, less frothy valuation for a bit. Watch the volume on any dips; that'll be telling.
That's an interesting take. While the cooling-off period post-split is a historical pattern, do you think NVDA's current position as a dominant AI chip supplier might make this particular dip less severe or shorter-lived than historical precedents?