NVDA's Pullback and the Q2 Lows
Looking at $NVDA, the recent dip has certainly caught some off guard after its parabolic run. While there's a lot of talk about a major correction, I'm leaning more towards a retest of the Q2 lows, roughly in the mid-80s, before any significant sustained rebound. I'd put the probability of seeing $NVDA touch that zone again by the end of July at around 60%. The reasoning isn't fundamentally bearish on AI, but rather a healthy technical unwind. The market needs to digest these massive gains, and a re-evaluation of valuation multiples, especially as the broader market seems to be facing some headwinds, makes a deeper retracement quite plausible. A lot of that quick money probably needs to find a new home, and the mid-80s provides a logical support zone where long-term holders who missed the initial surge might step in. Anything below that would signal a more significant shift in sentiment, which I currently rate as lower probability, say 25% for a break below 80 this quarter.
That's an interesting take. What makes you confident it would retest specifically the Q2 lows and not consolidate higher, perhaps around the $100 mark before any further movement?