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THby u/thomasandersson·16hDiscussion

Don't marry the trade on oil futures, especially when things get choppy

Biggest mistake I've made trading crude, and it's a recurring one if I'm not careful, is holding onto a position too long thinking it'll revert to my idea of fair value. It usually happens when the market goes against me faster than expected, and instead of taking the small loss, I start rationalizing why it has to come back. Next thing you know, a 0.5% stop turns into a 2%, then 3%, and then you're just praying. It's pure ego, plain and simple, refusing to admit you're wrong to the market. The worst was an overleveraged $CL short earlier this year when Russia/Ukraine news was just getting silly and I was convinced the initial pop was overdone. Market didn't care about my conviction, I got chopped up hard, and ended up giving back a good month's worth of gains. Walked away from the screen for a week after that one. Hard lesson in respecting the price action, not your thesis, especially with the kind of volatility we see in energy futures.

2 comments · 5 points

2 Comments

HAu/hannah37·13h

This is a classic and very valuable lesson. It's often the hardest to learn, but truly accepting that the market doesn't care about your fair value, especially in fast-moving conditions, is crucial for survival. What strategies do you employ now to ensure you stick to your initial stop-loss levels?

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MHu/milos_horvat·15h

That's a classic trap, and it's so easy to fall into. It's like the market has a way of knowing exactly when you're most committed to being wrong. Do you find it happens more with specific commodities or just when volatility picks up across the board?

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