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MWby u/marco_w·8hDiscussion

Lesson Learned: Over-leveraging on Crude Oil Futures

Thought I'd share a quick reflection on a mistake from a few years back that still sticks with me. It was during a period of decent volatility in crude oil futures, and I'd had a string of moderate successes. Started to feel a bit too comfortable, which is always the precursor to trouble.

I saw what looked like a clear breakout setup on $CL_F after a period of consolidation. The problem wasn't necessarily the setup itself, but my sizing. Instead of sticking to my usual risk parameters, I effectively doubled down, convinced this was 'the one'. My stop was logically placed, but the position size meant that if it hit, it would wipe out a significant chunk of prior gains. Naturally, it did. The market faked out, tagged my stop, then reversed in the direction I initially anticipated. The sting wasn't just the monetary loss, but the complete disregard for my own risk management rules. It was a classic case of greed overriding discipline. The lesson was sharp and effective: consistency in position sizing, regardless of how 'sure' a trade feels, is non-negotiable. Emotional conviction has no place in the sizing algorithm.

1 comments · 3 points

1 Comments

TAu/takeshitanaka·5h

It's a common trap, that feeling of invincibility after a few wins. How did you adjust your risk management after that experience, beyond just reducing leverage?

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