Thoughts on Oil and Rate Hike Expectations

Watching the bond market closely this morning, specifically the shift in rate hike expectations. The narrative around a potentially shallower hiking cycle, or even earlier cuts, seems to be gaining some traction again. This is directly impacting my outlook on energy. We saw a decent bounce in oil over the last few sessions, and if the dollar weakness persists on dovish Fed commentary, it could provide another leg up for crude.

It’s not just about the supply/demand fundamentals at this point; macro sentiment is dictating a lot. A less aggressive Fed could mean more industrial activity down the line, which would be a tailwind for WTI and Brent. I'm keeping an eye on the upcoming CPI data for confirmation, but my watchlist for energy-related plays is definitely seeing some green today. Not a straight line by any means, but the current macro winds feel more supportive.