Brent's Grind: Watching the $25-$30 Range by Month-End
It's been a real slog for Brent lately. While we bounced off the very lows, the upside momentum seems to be constantly running into a brick wall. Given the current demand destruction narratives still dominating and storage filling up, I'm putting a 60% probability on $LCO trading predominantly within the $25-$30 range by month-end. We've got a bit of a psychological barrier at $30, and without a significant shift in the macro landscape or a surprise OPEC+ move beyond what's already priced in, breaking and holding above that seems like a stretch.
Conversely, a full retest of $20-22 isn't entirely off the table, maybe a 20% chance if some truly dire economic data hits or storage gets absolutely capped, forcing some distressed selling. The remaining 20% is for a surprise pop or dive outside of this, but honestly, the sideways grind feels like the path of least resistance right now. Don't expect fireworks, more like watching paint dry, but with a potential for a messy spill.
The $25-$30 range seems plausible, but I'd put higher odds on a retest of the lows if storage continues to build as it has been. Demand isn't just a narrative anymore, it's a measurable drop. What's your trigger for breaking out of that range upwards?