WTI's Next Move: A Look at the Lower 70s

Been watching crude ($CL_F) pretty closely these past few weeks, and it feels like we're in a bit of a tug-of-war here. The general sentiment, at least on my screen, leans bearish, but every dip seems to find a bottom faster than a politician finds a microphone.

My take for the next 2-3 weeks, probably stretching into early next month, is that we're going to see a genuine test of the lower 70s for WTI. I'd put the odds of seeing a sustained close below $72.00 somewhere around 65-70%. We've been hovering around these levels for a bit now, with $XLE still chugging along at $63.75, which suggests some underlying support, but the macro headwinds feel like they're finally gathering enough strength. Inventory builds, albeit mixed, and continued rate chatter are making it difficult for the bulls to get any real traction. Add to that the usual summer demand question marks, and I think the path of least resistance is lower, at least until something truly shakes up the supply side. It won't be a freefall, mind you, more of a grudging slide. The $ZAPP market, whatever that is doing at $0.1548, probably isn't helping risk appetite broadly either. Just my two cents, not advice to short your grandmother's pension.