My costly lesson on 'knowing' the narrative in crude

Back in late 2021, early 2022, when crude was steadily climbing post-pandemic lows and the Russia-Ukraine situation was brewing, I got really caught up in the 'peak demand' and 'supply crunch' narrative. The consensus was so strong, every analyst was practically beating the drum for $100+ oil, and it felt like a sure thing. I remember getting aggressive with my long positions in $CL_F futures, even rolling some contracts forward without booking much profit, convinced the next leg up was just around the corner.

What I failed to account for, or rather, what I chose to ignore, was the technical picture showing some significant overextension and the increasing volatility. I was so fixated on the fundamental narrative that I let my sizing get out of hand, pushing beyond my usual risk parameters. When the inevitable pullback came, exacerbated by various news cycles, it hit hard. I ended up giving back a good chunk of my year's gains and then some, purely because I thought I 'knew' where the market had to go based on the prevailing story, rather than reacting to what the charts and price action were actually telling me in the moment. It was a classic case of confirmation bias costing me dearly, reminding me that even the strongest narratives can unravel quickly, and price always, always, trumps opinion.