Thoughts on the upcoming $USDZAR Kalshi contract

Been looking at the upcoming $USDZAR volatility contracts on Kalshi, specifically around the 16.60-16.80 range. With the recent move down to 16.6464 today, it feels like the market might be testing the lower end of its recent consolidation. A sustained break below 16.60 could signal further depreciation for the dollar against the rand, but a quick rebound back into the 16.70s would suggest this dip was just a liquidity grab. My main risk scenario for playing a downside move is any unexpected hawkish shift from SARB or a significant uptick in commodity prices, which could strengthen the ZAR considerably.