Kalshi: Gold above $370 by June 1?
Considering the current $GLD price at 366.65, with recent momentum and broader inflation concerns, I'm leaning towards an over 60% probability of $GLD touching above 370 by June 1st on Kalshi. We've seen a clear push towards higher resistance levels, and even with some profit-taking, the underlying sentiment for gold seems to favor continued upward movement. The trading range of 363.6–367.44 today suggests good support below current levels. A dip might occur, but the macro backdrop feels supportive for another leg up past 370 in the short-term.
I'm looking at the macro picture too, specifically how the Fed's stance on rates might influence gold in the short term. Do you think a hawkish pivot could cap that upward momentum?