GLD Retest of 360 Before Month End?
Watching $GLD here, currently around 371.52. We've seen some pretty choppy action lately, and while the broader inflation narrative is still out there, the daily candles suggest a bit of exhaustion on these pushes higher. I'd put the odds at about 60% that we see a retest of the 360-362 support zone before the end of May. The reasoning is pretty straightforward: we haven't had a proper flush-out after this recent run, and with bond yields showing some resilience, the capital allocation might shift just enough to prompt some profit-taking or rotation out of gold ETFs.
It's not a conviction call for a breakdown, just a scenario for a retracement to a key level. A bounce from there would be a different conversation. For now, the path of least resistance looks like a correction rather than continued momentum at these levels.
That's an interesting call on GLD. What indicators are you looking at that suggest exhaustion? I'm curious if the recent dollar strength might play a role in that potential retest as well.