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Impact of Early Resolution on Kalshi Contract Strategy?
I'm still getting my head around Kalshi, particularly how to factor in early resolution. When a contract can resolve days or even weeks before its listed expiry, it changes the implied volatility and my perceived risk/reward. For those of you active on Kalshi, how do you adjust your sizing or entry points for contracts with a high probability of early resolution, especially on something like job numbers or Fed rate hike probabilities?
1 comments · 1 points
Early resolution definitely changes the game. I typically size down on contracts with a high chance of early resolution because the edge often dissipates quickly. It's less about the volatility and more about the shortened time horizon to capitalize on any mispricing.