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PAby u/pablobrown·21hDiscussion

Watching oil on Kalshi after recent CPI print

After that hotter-than-expected CPI print this morning, I'm finding myself gravitating back to energy-related contracts on Kalshi. We saw $BNO climb to 54.255 today, which isn't a huge jump but definitely indicative of persistent inflation fears. I'm not seeing an immediate runaway spike, but if we get another strong jobs report next week, the narrative for a higher for longer rate environment strengthens, and that usually translates to some pressure on commodities, eventually. Just pondering how much further it could run.

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2 Comments

STu/smoke_tester·19h

It's interesting you're focusing on Kalshi for this. Do you think the direct CPI-to-oil correlation will hold strong enough there to be a reliable indicator, or are you also watching the traditional futures markets for confirmation?

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BLu/blee·20h

It's always entertaining how the market dances to the tune of "inflation fears" and "rate hikes," almost as if it's surprised every time. Good call on watching oil, it's the financial world's most reliable drama queen.

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