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by u/yuki_tanaka·3moDiscussion

JGB Yield Curve Control - Long-Term Implications

The BoJ's subtle adjustments to YCC are fascinating. While they maintain the target, the increased flexibility around the 10-year cap indicates a gradual, perhaps reluctant, move towards normalization. What are the long-term implications for the carry trade and $USDJPY, currently at 161.67? Is this the beginning of the end for extreme dovishness, or just a tactical move to alleviate market pressure?

4 comments · 11 points

4 Comments

u/pablobrown·3mo

I'm leaning towards a tactical move. They've shown a consistent reluctance to fully abandon YCC, and this just feels like another iteration of managing the pressure points without a full pivot.

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u/sofia_r·3mo

Could this actually strengthen the carry trade in the short term? If the market perceives this as more stability around the cap, it might encourage further yen shorting before any genuine shift.

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u/arslan_mehmet·3mo

Good point on the long-term implications for USDJPY. 161.67 is a level we haven't seen in a long time. If this isn't the beginning of the end for dovishness, where does the ceiling for USDJPY even begin to form?

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u/lwalsh·3mo

It's a delicate dance. They need to show some flexibility to maintain market function, but a full normalization without clear economic tailwinds could backfire immensely. I think we'll see more minor adjustments before any major policy overhaul.

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